ACUS02 KWNS 091649
SWODY2
SPC AC 091648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent
Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

...Southeast...
An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively
tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by
early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent
weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the
Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive
cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization,
but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow
for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the
HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the
mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater
instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe
weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with
lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time,
expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection
and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the
threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be
the primary threat.

...Outerbanks...
As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z
Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and
start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level
flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to
advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability
is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell
potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a
confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if
it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move
inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind
gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate
instability forecast.

..Bentley.. 12/09/2024

$$

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