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The market closed up modestly today, but we also saw the first hint of
weakness.  During the lunch hour the market was about +10pts, but gave
half that back.  The Advance-Decline was slightly positive, not good,
but the Up-Volume led Down-volume more comfortably.  Total volume was
also only slightly ahead of yesterday, +16% above average.

So it wasn't a bad day, not a good day.  There are many times when the
market starts moving (and this could be up or down) with a few "stutter
steps".  I think of it as the way the Street telegraphs its intentions,
to allow everybody to "get on board", so they get enough players, enough
momentum on their side to make a forceful move.  The number of times
when the market just gives us a head-fake and streaks for the goal-line,
leaving us empty-handed, are less than one might imagine.

Right now, we just left a few quick lows in the 1175-1180 area.  We had
highs this summer at 1245.  I'm considering those Support and Resistance
areas.  Anything it does between those isn't going to surprize me.
Until it gets beyond one or the other, I'm not going to be looking for a
new trend.  And as before, if prices were to start here and say reach
for 1280-1300 by the end of the year, which wouldn't be surprizing for
November-December behavior, I wouldn't be forgetting that it wasn't
until 1245 that prices actually "broke-out".  Some "analysts" and
reporters like to ignore how often a Resistance level will turn back a
"timid" market.  Going back to an earlier "bottom"
makes the move look
larger, gives them a better "story".  Just remember, right now we have
no indications whatever the market is going to break through 1245 with
impressive enthusiasm.  It's NOT predictable!

The Street is going to try to get you excited--watch for it!  They want
Main Street to get into the market--late, as usual.  That gives them
someone to sell to when they decide to turn prices around.  It's a game
they play, but they need to get all the Street players going with it.
And that's the reason for telegraphing their moves.  The SEC would be
all over them if they actually talked to each other and decided to move
the market.  This way works, and it's legal.  I know, you're shocked,
SHOCKED! to learn the game is rigged.

Just don't forget when you play that all the boogeymen we were thinking
about in August and September, the twin deficits, jobs & off-shoring,
oil/energy consumption & prices, and inflation, etc., are all still
there.  Not one of them has been "solved".  Greenspan was lecturing
Congresscritters just today on the Federal Budget deficits.  If you're
gonna play this game, know how it's played, and play it smart!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 ____     __<_     _<__     10/28
 __>_     __     __>_     _|__     10/31
 _>__     __     __>_     _|__     11/01
 __>_     __     ___>     _|__     11/02
 __>_     __     __>_     _|__     11/03

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/31/05 S&P:    1207
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... A good catchword can obscure analysis for fifty years.
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