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Yeow!  Half my data is gone!  Naw, that's just because my spreadsheet
shows 2 years of data for exactly this.  When I cut away the 2004 data
and slid the 2005 data in its place, I can still see a year's worth of
"prelude" and trends for the new 2006.

I got my "Tracking the Market" page updated yesterday morning for your
reference.  I may make some minor editing changes and corrections over
the next few weeks, but the story of 2005 is the story of 2005.  My page
shows a chart since mid-'94, and that "big picture" view showed me a new
line to pencil on my charts--a rising bottoms "support line" from
October 2004 through April & October 2005.  That's moderately positive,
but right now it's down a little below 1200.  We could drop to that and
still not violate this trend.  Would that scare you?

But there was no dropping in the market today!  There was some reaction
in the morning to GM and data showing manufacturing is declining.  (DOH!
If you keep off-shoring it, what else do you expect?)  But at 2EST the
minutes of the last Fed meeting were released.  Prices immediately
jumped 5pts, then 3 more, and another 5 and then 3.  Volume for the 2
o'clock hour was nearly double the preceeding hour, while traders were
waiting.  At the close prices were up +21pts, when 12pts would have been
a significant change.  Volume was up +25% above average.  Obviously
that's more than enough to call it an "accumulation" day by anybody's
formula.  And a reversal of my timing signal to BUY!

The FOMC minutes removed the wording that monetary policy is still
"accomodative".  Many on the Street were saying, "One and
done," but I
think they're likely to be disappointed.  What the Fed said is it is now
uncertain exactly where neutral policy is, because there's a delay
between rate setting and its effects in the economy.  But they left the
"measured pace" wording in, and one step isn't a measured pace! The only
thing I'd expect from them is they might stop raising rates at every
meeting, as they've been doing for over a year.  No more "free money".
The Street and CEO's are going to have to earn it now.

Well, there's more to see as the Street turns its vision to the new
year.  Remember, the January Effect doesn't work.  Don't let it, or
anything else of that nature, sway your emotions.  One day at a time.
The market has been pretty flat for the last month or 6 weeks, showing
little enthusiasm for breaking above these levels.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     |___     __|_     <___     _|__     __|_     12/27
 __<_     |___     __|_     <___     __|_     __|_     12/28
 _<__     |___     __|_     <___     __|_     __|_     12/29
 _<__     |___     _|__     <___     _|__     __|_     12/30
 ___>     |___     __|_     ___<     __|_     __|_     01/03

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  01/03/06 S&P:    1269
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... "Honey, where's part 5 of my 'Dada Trilogy'?"
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