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"DOW ends up 12 on strong economic data."  Do you recognize a shell-game
when you see it?  Let me rewrite that headline: "DOW up 0.11% on strong
economic data."  They were in effect lying to you by distracting you
with the "good news" part of that headline.  They counted on you not
having a clue what the level of the DJIA is: 10,640.  And it can only
gain 12 points?!?!?!  OK, the Street wasn't surprized--it watches the
all the raw data on the economy too.  Still, this is NOT good news.

Under the heading, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it."
China says it will revise its monetary policy in the next month.  Is
this good news?  After shipping all our high-paying jobs over-seas, now
they want us to pay more for everything that says, "Made in China"?
Jobs first, higher prices second.  Not higher prices on hopes jobs come
back!  OK, rhetoric aside, we should expect this to cause some
volatility.

With the DJIA essentially unchanged, it's a good bet the S&P was too: up
a point on -5% below average volume.  Note that it was underwater until
the last 90 minutes befoe closing.

If you've learned nothing else from me, you should have learned that not
all price rallies are created equal.  If prices move higher this summer
over lack of interest and constricted supply, DON'T suddenly wake up
when they're up 50-100pts and think it's a new BULL MARKET!  Do your
homework while the market treads water, but always keep an eye on it.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     _>__     __|_     __>_     __>_     ___|     07/11
 __>_     _>__     __|_     __>_     __>_     ___>     07/12
 __>_     _>__     __|_     _>__     __>_     ___>     07/13
 __>_     _>__     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___>     07/14
 __|_     _>__     __|_     _>__     __     07/15

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Don't ask why, just do it.
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