ACUS02 KWNS 071647
SWODY2
SPC AC 071645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are still possible from southeast Texas into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for
severe thunderstorms remains very low.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Southern Plains and
impinge on the TN Valley while preceding a larger upper trough that
is poised to overspread the central and northern CONUS tomorrow
(Sunday). The approach of the Southern Plains mid-level trough will
encourage broad low-level warm-air/moisture advection across
portions of the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley regions. Latest
guidance consensus continues to depict a warm-sector characterized
by scant buoyancy, with widespread rainfall and embedded elevated
thunderstorms expected to overspread the Lower MS and TN Valleys
Sunday into Sunday night. High-resolution guidance consensus hints
at the possibility of 100-500 J/kg SBCAPE over southern LA by
afternoon peak heating, amid curved and elongated hodographs. While
a rotating storm or perhaps brief tornado cannot be completely ruled
out, the lack of confidence in developing surface-based buoyancy
precludes severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024

$$

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