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And it was going SO well!  Prices jumped at the open on GDP & M&A news,
staking out a position up about 9pts through the lunch hour.  Then in
the afternoon it started stepping back.  We might think the morning's
action prompted some tax-loss selling, selling into strength.  I suppose
that could be true--rumors were that Kerkorian was selling some of his
GM (stinky poo!) to offset his $2B sale of MGM to Sony in April.  At the
close prices were still up, very modestly, as well as volume, -3% below
average.  The Advance:Decline and Up:Down-Volume ratios were about 5:3,
so overall it wasn't a bad day, though the low volume cautions us not to
get excited about it.

You'll get to see my charts soon on my website, but let me summarize
something I see quickly.  During the 21 trading days of October, the
average price was 1192, average volume 2380Ms.  For the past 21
sessions, the average price was 1262, average volume 2139Ms.  The higher
prices aren't confirmed by higher volume.  That's what we call a
"divergence".  Buyers aren't buying with enthusiasm, eagerly bidding up
stocks to buy.  It's NOT a positive sign.

Now, certainly we expect October was Mutual fund selling and portfolio
restructuring.  November they bought what they planned to make the basis
of their portfolios for 2006, bringing us up to this level with their
demand.  Where are they now?

With this prelude, what are we to expect?  (nudge, nudge, wink, wink)
Hmmm, January is coming.  I know, "As January goes, so goes the year."
And you want it to go up, don't you?  January in the market is often
like the weather, hard.  What are you going to do?  Prepare for what you
want?  Or for what the apparent current Street sentiment seems to
suggest and is often the history of Januarys?

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__          12/15
 _|__          12/16
 __     12/19
 _<__     <___     __|_     _|__     _<__     __|_     12/20
 __<_     <___     __|_     _|__     _<__     __|_     12/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/31/05 S&P:    1207
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... How come pizza gets to your house faster than the police?
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