ACUS48 KWNS 060937
SWOD48
SPC AC 060936

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that
significant amplification of the upper pattern will take place next
week as a strong and deep upper trough traverses the CONUS. The
initial development of this upper trough is forecast to begin on
D4/Monday as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into
the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the
Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. By early D5/Tuesday, evolution of
these systems will have likely resulted in broad and deep upper
troughing across much of the central North America. This trough is
then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses
through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening
mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 120 kt 500 mb
jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D6/Wednesday.
The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly
eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on
D6/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent
upper troughing.

A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing
eastward through the Plains on D4/Monday, the MS and OH Valleys and
Southeast on D5/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D6/Wednesday.
Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front
across the Southeast on D5/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel
orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy
will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable
low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the
Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday as well, with strengthening deep-layer
vertical shear and large-scale ascent anticipated across the region
as well. As a result, some severe appears possible, but uncertainty
regarding frontal position limits predictability.

..Mosier.. 12/06/2024

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