FOUS30 KWBC 060817
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Churchill


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024 - 12Z Sun Dec 08 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

A low-level jet streaming Gulf moisture northward across eastern
Texas will interact with a strong shortwave trough which will move
northeastward out of New Mexico and into the central Plains. PWATs
along the Upper Texas coast are expected to increase to 1.5"+ and=20
instability should remain minimal (and mostly confined to the=20
coast). The heaviest rain is forecast to be on Saturday night due=20
to the typical nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet. Soils=20
have become a bit more saturated in this region due to the recent=20
rainfall, and some rainfall is expected on Friday. Isolated flash=20
flooding is possible, especially in areas of more saturated soils,=20
urban areas, and flood prone/low lying areas.=20

Churchill/Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 08 2024 - 12Z Mon Dec 09 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...

Continued moisture flux transport via a moderately strong low-
level jet is expected to result in increasing coverage of flash=20
flooding on Sunday, as the bulk of the forcing and jet dynamics=20
via the aforementioned strong shortwave trough will not arrive
until midday (along with maximized instability). Localized training
is expected to result in 2-4" totals, suggesting a lower-end=20
Slight Risk based on the probability spectrum (which ranges from
15-40%). Given that most of the region is experiencing very dry=20
antecedent soil conditions (10th percentile or lower for much of=20
MS/AR/LA, per NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-100 cm soil moisture), any flooding
should be relegated to flood-prone areas (with the greatest risk=20
for any localized significant flash flooding over west-central LA,
where antecedent soil conditions and streamflows are locally higher).


Churchill


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!45uQqaynKJtX2GZp8iqu6KwJDv95LEc0E1LmEi6xwJvP=
Eh2hl8CaMeEGGVcRtZncct4uuP8PIi5lQ7oT3tz9wCCbDeU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!45uQqaynKJtX2GZp8iqu6KwJDv95LEc0E1LmEi6xwJvP=
Eh2hl8CaMeEGGVcRtZncct4uuP8PIi5lQ7oT3tz9nVLypFo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!45uQqaynKJtX2GZp8iqu6KwJDv95LEc0E1LmEi6xwJvP=
Eh2hl8CaMeEGGVcRtZncct4uuP8PIi5lQ7oT3tz9kN2s4ks$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux