ACUS48 KWNS 050900
SWOD48
SPC AC 050859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Ridging will start to build into the Southeast this weekend with a
series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more
progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast,
the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for
significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of
this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture
intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a
progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe
weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level
pattern and the degree of destabilization.

The ECMWF shows a sharpening trough moving across east Texas late
Sunday. A strengthening low-level jet will be associated with this
trough with increasing low-level moisture across parts of East Texas
and Louisiana. However, instability is forecast to remain quite weak
with a mostly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic environment in the
region. Some severe weather could be possible in this scenario, but
the weak instability will likely preclude a greater threat. The GFS
shows more of a closed low moving into the central Plains with
forcing further displaced from the better low-level moisture and
thus minimal severe weather potential on Day4/Sunday.

Beyond Day 4 there will be some severe weather potential as a large
trough crosses the western CONUS and digs into the southern Plains
with moisture inland across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A wide
range of possibilities remain due to the complicated upper-level
pattern and variance among forecast guidance. Therefore, there are
no specific periods with greater severe weather concern, but the
extended range will need to be monitored given the presence of an
approaching large-scale trough and inland 60F+ dewpoints.

..Bentley.. 12/05/2024

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