FOUS30 KWBC 041554
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1054 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Dec 04 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent. Forecast thinking based on 12z mesoscale guidance remains
unchanged as strengthening warm/moist advection atop a weak=20
frontal wave results in 2-4 inch rainfall totals focused across=20
east Texas and central Louisiana through early Thursday. However,=20
dry antecedent conditions, and consequently high FFG thresholds=20
suggest the threat of flash flooding, while non-zero, is less than=20
5%.=20

Asherman/Cook

Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!43BEBEqMMULz7u3LBP8TV-aI6yI9_ZbvD4VPNP2TO4q2=
PKmaze_JaZq4080c2YgBzkADxiiz-8cyqQjl93ycOiucodM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!43BEBEqMMULz7u3LBP8TV-aI6yI9_ZbvD4VPNP2TO4q2=
PKmaze_JaZq4080c2YgBzkADxiiz-8cyqQjl93ycm2FmYyc$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!43BEBEqMMULz7u3LBP8TV-aI6yI9_ZbvD4VPNP2TO4q2=
PKmaze_JaZq4080c2YgBzkADxiiz-8cyqQjl93yctnCOwXg$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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