FOUS30 KWBC 040721
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 04 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent. Strengthening warm/moist advection across east Texas
and Louisiana will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm=20
activity most of the day through early Thursday. Several areas of=20
2-4 inch rainfall totals are expected especially from southeast=20
Texas into central Louisiana. The rain will fall in areas that have
not experienced appreciable rainfall over at least the past week,=20
and models are inconsistent with depiction of any focused corridors
of heavier and/or training convection that could result in larger-
scale flash flood concerns. FFG thresholds are also relatively=20
high. <5% probabilities are maintained for this outlook with the=20
expectation that any flash flood concerns should be isolated at=20
best.

Cook

Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8DW7nnqk-wT6QeWhC4nrwiTgoaBVKElV6Pb29N7VRt-f=
8_iRWOGbrWRtzVOFfAtBRjodC0U06BfjwbUwZQpHNBj66gA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8DW7nnqk-wT6QeWhC4nrwiTgoaBVKElV6Pb29N7VRt-f=
8_iRWOGbrWRtzVOFfAtBRjodC0U06BfjwbUwZQpHFT3VN4w$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8DW7nnqk-wT6QeWhC4nrwiTgoaBVKElV6Pb29N7VRt-f=
8_iRWOGbrWRtzVOFfAtBRjodC0U06BfjwbUwZQpHrcNfioQ$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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