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There were two emtirely different markets today.  Through the lunch hour
prices were in a "W" pattern within a range of about 8pts--more
volatility than we've seen many days recently.  After lunch the Street
got its hands on the FOMC "Beige Book" for September.  They liked what
they saw, and the market made steady upward progress for the rest of the
session.  Prices rose +140% of significance and volume increased to +20%
above average.  That was certainly enough for my conservative formula to
call it an "Accumulation" day.

My interpretation of this is more than a little guarded.  (1) The Street
only THINKS it knows what the Fed is watching, what it's feeling and how
it will respond.  The Fed may not want to shock the Street, but it's not
beholding to whatever ideas the Street gets into their pointy little
heads.  (2) The Street IS responding to today's "news".  There is no
confidence in the market's direction--they'll turn on a dime if the next
bit of news is negative, just as they did today.

This isn't a market for amateurs to be active in right now, traders
perhaps.  We're still below where we began the year.  And while some are
talking about a "Bull Market 'getting a little long in the tooth'", the
best you've heard me admit to is a possible end of the 3-year Bear
Market, but that being the recent, overhanging trend.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __     __     <___     __<_     10/13
 __|_     __>_     __     _|__     _<__     10/14
 __>_     __>_     ___     _>__     _<__     10/17
 _>__     __|_     __     >___     _<__     10/18
 ___>     __|_     _     _>__     _<__     10/19

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  10/04/05 S&P:    1214
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -13

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... A kiss can be a comma, a ?, or a !
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