ACUS03 KWNS 021927
SWODY3
SPC AC 021925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss
on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong shortwave trough and accompanying intense jet streak are
forecast to progress quickly southeastward from the Canadian
Prairies/northern Plains through the Upper Midwest, Upper Great
Lakes, and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. By early Thursday morning, the
mid-latitude cyclone associated with this shortwave is forecast to
be over the Lower Great Lakes, with the strong jet streak (i.e. over
120 kt at 500 mb) stretching through its base from IN through the
Mid-Atlantic. Strong height falls and cold mid-level temperatures
will spread eastward with this system, but the cold, dry, and stable
airmass in place across the region will preclude thunderstorm
development.

Some moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated from the
TX Coast into the Lower MS Valley, with mid 60s dewpoints likely
extending from the Middle TX Coastal Plain into far southwest LA by
late Wednesday afternoon. Enhanced low/mid-level flow will persist
throughout the day across this region, contributing to a large area
of precipitation from the Middle TX Coast through east and much of
LA and southern AR. A few deeper updrafts are possible embedded
within this larger area of precipitation, with occasional lightning
flashes possible throughout the afternoon and overnight.

..Mosier.. 12/02/2024

$$

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