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Today's action was something like the mirror image of yesterday's.
Prices stair-stepped their way lower all day, undoing all of yesterday's
gains.  The difference is today's volume was +5% above average, showing
more enthusiasm for selling than yesterday's buying, with -2% below
average volume.  Both Friday and today my timing signal came within a
hair's breadth of reversing itself yet again to Sell.

Crude futures rose to close above $61/bbl, up +3%, +8.8% since Thursday,
on the apparent "fragility" of our refineries to tropical storms, and
the mere threat that TS Dennis might become a hurricane.

Did the oil pits just discover hurricanes this year?  We've had bad
hurricane seasons in the past, and this one hasn't even started yet, but
there was no panic over energy supplies.

No, I'm not buying the alarms about heavier usage and more reliance now,
vs more supply then.  It was in no oil company's interests then to over
build refinining capacity or flood the market with supply, driving
prices down.  OPEC has had the "whip hand" over supplies since at least
1973, and we never had this free-running angst in oil trading.

What is going on here?  No, that's NOT a rhetorical question!  As
consumers and investors we need to know.  Do we need to be prepared for
more of the same without end?  Are we just getting ripped-off, and is
there a way to take action against that sort of activity?  Is there a
way we can somewhat protect ourselves with astute investments, and how
far will that horse run?

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     _|__     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___|     06/29
 _|__     _|__     _|__     ____     ___|     06/30
 __|_     _|__     __|_     __     ___|     07/01
 __|_     _|__     __|_     _|__     __|_     ___|     07/05
 _|__     _|__     __|_     __|_     __|_     ___|     07/06

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... "Honey, where's part 5 of my 'Dada Trilogy'?"
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