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Prices were mixed for the first half of the morning session, but then
continued their back-sliding ways.  Losses were more than modest, but a
modest rally in the last hour achieved a close with modest losses.
Volume increased to +3% above average.

Every time we get some good news, we get a good day in the market,
there's never any follow-through!  Then next day or two gives it all
back.  There's no way we're going to get a rally with so many investors
willing to sell.

Today the news was even lower Consumer Confidence polling.  Consumers
noted the after effects of the hurricanes, gas pump shock, and weakening
job market.  Now, even though I'm going on to make the point that
they're probably right, we need to see the forest, rather than getting
involved with all the trees.  Investors are far more willing to sell than
hold stock, and that's been true for a few months now.

In the 50's the RAND Corporation, working for the USAF, established what
has come has come to be called the "Delphi" process or effect:  "The
averaged opinion of a mass of equally expert or equally ignorant
observers is quite a bit more reliable a predictor than the opinion of a
single randomly-chosen one of the observers."  An unbiased consensus is
less likely to be biased by our individual idiosyncratic attitudes.

What you or I think about the economy or it's likely future is strongly
biased by our politics and our own individual financial condition.
Individually, we are not good judges.  But a statistically significant
sample of the public really is the best source we have for how the
economy feels down on Main Street.  To be sure, we can't necessarily
expect the public to respond in a predictable manner--at least
"predictable" in our lights.  But we should accept that Main Street
isn't happy, their spending will reflect that, and that will in turn
affect corporate earnings.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 ___>     __|_     _     _>__     _<__     10/19
 |___     __|_     _|__     __>_     _|__     _<__     10/20
 __|_     __>_     _|__     __>_     _>__     _<__     10/21
 ___>     __|_     _|__     _>__     _>__     _<__     10/24
 _>__     __|_     _|__     __>_     __>_     _<__     10/25

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  10/04/05 S&P:    1214
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -13

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Yes, I _am_ made of "star stuff".
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