Content-type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"

Prices were moderately underwater all day.  It was enough to scare my
timing signal into SELLing.  Volume fell to +4% above average.

According to the news-bots the employment figures spooked the Street.
Unemployment was down to 4.7% and wages were modestly higher.  That
scared the little dears into worrying that inflation would return and
the FOMC would continue raising rates.

Of course!  Have they said they're finished?  Now, the Street gets to
set the prices, and trying to argue with them is a fast way to lose
money.  But I'm convinced the "buzz" is all wrong, and I'm sure hoping
wiser heads will rule.

What is it the Street wants?  Lay off more Americans, and pay them all
minimum wage and no benie's?  Trust me; no matter how they behave, they
DON'T want that.

They're all a twitter because average wages are $16.41/hr.  I make that
about $34k/yr, and nowadays that doesn't come as a "full-meal deal".
Don't they think the average working American is worried about job
security?  Where were they during the last auto-workers strike?  Now,
given that's your situation, a $34K/yr job and a family to support, are
you likely to step off the dock onto boat that ain't tied up?  Or are
you likely to hold on with both hands?  And four pieces of rope tied
around your waist!

Maybe some people are believing some of the lies being told.  Employment
is all fine, right?  America created 2M new jobs in 2005.  About the
same as 2004.  That's good, right?  You don't have enough information to
make that judgement!  Here's a question: how many jobs does America NEED
to create a year?  Let's get some measure of comparison here.  Let's
ignore the immigration issue.  How many kids are coming out every year
that need jobs?

Type in www.census.gov.  In 2000 high-school enrollment was around 16
million, another 17 million in college and graduate school.  I don't
even need the back of an envelope to figure that's 4 million high-school
grads every year.  The ones that don't go to work enter college, some
will stay for graduate school, but since that population is in "steady
state", there's still 4 million kids with HS, BS/BA, MS/PhD degrees
coming out every year.  And we created 2 million jobs!  Four million in
2004-2005 combined.  Two years to create the jobs we need every year.
It ain't all fine!

"You can fool some of the people some of the time."  Yep, we've seen
that in recent years.  "But you can't fool all of the people all of the
time."  Gawd, I sure hope not!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     __     __|_     ___|     01/30
 _>__     _     __|_     ___|     01/31
 __|_     __     __|_     ___|     02/01
 __     _<__     ___|     02/02
 __     _<__     ___|     02/03

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  02/03/06 S&P:    1264
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -10

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Is that seat saved?  No, but we're praying for it.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

---