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Prices spent the morning underwater, surfaced during lunch and spent the
afternoon in modestly positive territory.  The problem is buyers weren't
buying it, so to speak.  Volume fell to -17% below average.

Oil was lower, for only the second time in about 2.5 weeks.  Perhaps
that's "why" prices improved.  If it wasn't so dangerous, I think it
would be funny that there is so much relief when oil makes the one step
back after three steps, five steps higher.

There's one thing we should learn from this, as investors: We have to
build growth into our retirement portfolios.  The CPI is built with a
"representative" basket of commodities, but our retirement needs may
vary.  Intelligent reflection makes it clear that energy is a finite
resource, and it will cost us more in the future, even absent the sort
of speculation we are seeing.  (Which is not to say that there won't
be even more speculation and hoarding as supplies tighten.)

Well, prices are still above the "rising bottoms" support line, so the
market is still positive.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     <___     __|_     __<_     <___     ___<     08/09
 _|__     <___     __|_     __<_     _|__     ___<     08/10
 __>_     __     ___<     08/11
 _>__     __     _>__     ___<     08/12
 __|_     __     ___<     08/15

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... I am not young enough to know everything anymore.
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