ACUS48 KWNS 280908
SWOD48
SPC AC 280906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential still appears low through
most of the extended range.

A deep upper-level trough is expected to persist across the
central/eastern CONUS into at least the middle of next week, as
multiple reinforcing shortwaves move southeastward out of Canada. In
conjunction with this trough, surface ridging will persist across
the Gulf of Mexico and generally maintain dry and stable conditions
for most of the CONUS. Farther west, a slow-moving mid/upper-level
trough may gradually amplify and potentially become a cut off low in
the vicinity of the Desert Southwest into northwest Mexico and Baja
California.

Guidance does suggest that gradual low-level moisture return will be
possible across parts of TX/LA from D4/Sunday into early next week,
as the surface ridge shifts eastward. This moisture return could
result in occasional thunderstorm potential within a weak
warm-advection regime, though the synoptic pattern is expected to
remain unfavorable for an organized severe threat.

By mid week, predictability regarding the synoptic pattern
substantially decreases, especially regarding if/when the potential
cut-off low begins to eject eastward across the Southwest and
southern Rockies. A faster ejection could result in some possibility
for more-organized convection across the southern Plains by late
next week, though the bulk of guidance still suggests generally low
potential through at least D7/Wednesday.

..Dean.. 11/28/2024

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