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We've often seen stock prices drive off a cliff, but rarely do we see
the opposite.  That's what happened today: prices were going along,
relatively unchanged as they are when the FOMC is meeting, then they ran
into a wall!  As soon as the Fed's statement got circulated prices took
an abrupt jump on spiking volume.  The Fed raised rates again, continued
to promise rates manipulations would happen at a "measured pace", but
they dropped the description of monetary policy as being "accomodative".
That's it.  The Street jumped on that as "evidence" the end of rate
hikes is in view.

So at the close, prices were up moderately and volume increased to +9%
above average.  I certainly wouldn't call that a "feeding frenzy", but
looking at the price & volume intraday chart there was clearly much
higher volume AFTER the announcement, confirming the price appreciation.

Well, Mom was a farm girl and she taught me, "Don't count your chickens
before they hatch."  For now I'll continue to stand by my statement
yesterday, that I would take a conservative stance for a few more weeks.
Let the year-end play itself out.  Let the CEO's and the Street assess
plans for the year ahead.  Let Greenspan retire and Bernanke take the
reins.  And let my existing investments carry me through until we're
looking out on a solid year ahead.

Soon after New Year's day I'll update my website's "Tracking the Market"
page, showing the 2004-2005 charts I've been watching and my analytical
review of the past two years.  You've already seen part of that.  Watch
for it.  And check out 2003 there while you still can.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __     __     12/07
 __     ___     12/08
 ___     12/09
 __|_     __     12/12
 __|_     __     12/13

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/31/05 S&P:    1207
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Would a homeless Bugs Bunny work for Fudd?
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