ACUS02 KWNS 271715
SWODY2
SPC AC 271714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible
Thursday across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas, with the
greatest threat currently expected from late morning into the
afternoon.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Thursday, an upper trough will move across the eastern states
with a strong midlevel speed max sweeping east across the
Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. A surface low is forecast to move
quickly across VA/MD/DE and toward southern New England by late
afternoon.

South of a low, a cold front will extend across the Carolinas,
central GA and into far southern AL, MS, and LA by midday, with a
plume of 60s F dewpoints ahead of it. MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500
J/kg may develop along southern portions of the front with modest
heating possible. Forecast shear and thermodynamic profiles appear
most favorable in these same areas, with conditional risk of wind,
perhaps localized hail.

The primary issue regarding storm coverage and severity, especially
over southern areas, appears to be the rapidly veering low-level
flow, combined with drying aloft and a departing wave to the north.
These factors may reduce overall storm coverage.  Farther north
closer to the surface low, instability will be weaker, however,
low-level shear and hodographs may favor a conditional/brief tornado
risk prior to frontal passage.

..Jewell.. 11/27/2024

$$

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