From: Adam 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5240808.stm

Basically ties into what the ex-Hereford professional tourist/deskjockey
(as ever bad knees) bod I mentioned a while back was saying....

Most likely outcome - 3 states. 2nd mostly likely - very weak federal gov
with 3 powerful states which reserve the right to secede.


The main question is...peacefully a la Czechoslovakia or.....less than peacefully...

Great news for Iran.

"Civil war is a more likely outcome in Iraq than democracy, Britain's
outgoing ambassador in Baghdad has warned Tony Blair in a confidential
memo.

William Patey, who left the Iraqi capital last week, also predicted the
break-up of Iraq along ethnic lines.

He did also say that "the position is not hopeless" - but said
Iraq would remain "messy and difficult" for the next five to 10
years. "


"Mr Patey wrote: "The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a
de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a
successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy.

"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq - a
government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is
an ally in the war on terror - must remain in doubt." "

Nicely put.

Now here comes the crucial bit wot the Israel supporters don't realise...


"Talking about the Shia militias blamed for many killings, Mr Patey
added: "If we are to avoid a descent into civil war and anarchy then
preventing the Jaish al-Mahdi (the Mahdi Army) from developing into a state
within a state, as Hezbollah has done in Lebanon, will be a
priority.""

"The cable says that "the next six months are crucial" - an
assessment which is shared by the coalition's military commanders.

Senior military sources told the BBC it was "make or break" time
in Iraq. The Americans are sending thousands of extra troops to Baghdad,
starting next week. "

"The BBC has also learned, from military sources, that British troops
in Basra are planning to dramatically step up operations against Shia
gunmen.

Mr Patey urges the government to ensure that Iraqi troops are brought into
this effort as the British forces "can't confront the militias
alone". "

Now...how politically bright will it be to take on the Shia militias while
Hezbollah (& indeed Lebanon) is (A) under attack & (B) Fighting
well & (C) the heroes of the Arab street?

Jaws must have dropped all over the mil commands in Iraq when Israel
decided to start pummeling Hezbollah/Lebanon.

Maybe the Israelis want civil war & the dissolution of Iraq as that
would be less of a potential threat than a unitary state.

I'd place a bet that Israel knew we & the US were about to start taking
on the Sadrs & Badrs. Did they intend to sabotage that?

In the coming days one may have to aks how many dead Iraqis, UK PBI, &
US GI'es will have to pay the ultimate price for 2 captured Israeli
soldiers.

If it's "make of break" then the Israelis may have just broken
it. Gee how many US lives & Billions of US treasure would that mean
were wasted?


Adam

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