ACUS02 KWNS 251646
SWODY2
SPC AC 251644

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms still appears negligible across much of
the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
While a modest, occluding surface cyclone undergoes some further
deepening east of Georgian Bay into areas of Quebec to the southeast
of James Bay, weak secondary cyclogenesis may ensue across southern
New England into the Nova Scotia vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday
night.  It appears that a trailing cold front will advance east of
the Appalachians and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast, before
stalling across northern Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico by
the end of the period.  In its wake, models indicate that similar
strength cyclogenesis may quickly commence to the lee of the
southern Rockies, downstream of a remnant mid-level short wave
perturbation forecast to dig inland of the Oregon/northern
California coast.

...Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin...
Boundary-layer destabilization beneath the mid-level cold core
(including -28 to -30 C around 500 mb) of the inland migrating
perturbation may become maximized across the southeastern Oregon and
southern Idaho into western Wyoming vicinity by late Tuesday
afternoon.  However, even through peak heating, the extent to which
a relatively cool/dry boundary layer can become supportive of
convection capable of producing lightning remains unclear, based on
forecast thermodynamic profiles.  At this point, some lightning
appears possible, but coverage probably will remain rather sparse.

...Atlantic Seaboard...
Model output continues to suggest that mostly elevated pre-frontal
destabilization will become less conducive to convection capable of
producing lightning by/shortly after 12Z Tuesday, to the east of the
Blue Ridge.  Weak boundary-layer destabilization does appear
possible during the day in a narrow corridor ahead of the slowing
surface front, across parts of the Florida Panhandle and adjacent
southeastern Alabama into southern Georgia.  However, based on
relatively warm lower/mid-levels evident in forecast soundings, and
weak mid/upper forcing for ascent, probabilities for thunderstorm
development still appears less than 10 percent.

Guidance continues to indicate that the most substantive convective
potential will become focused ahead the eastward advancing front,
offshore of coastal areas near the Gulf Stream, by early Tuesday
evening.

..Kerr.. 11/25/2024

$$

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