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Today's title is either "DOH!" or "What a difference a day
makes."  The
CPI, Consumer Price Index, was released today.  Here's the "DOH!" part.
The CPI, i.e. inflation, rose in July, primarily from gasoline prices.
One "analyst" said "If you're not using energy, you probably didn't
notice."  Gee, do you think?!  I guess Juan Valdez and his donkey are
doing OK then.  What I want to know is: why is ANYBODY surprized?  Who
thought all this speculation could drive energy prices this high without
directly affecting consumers (who are well known to drive about 2/3 of
the economy), hence profits at places like Walmart, and the economy in
general?  "Shocking fact: 50% of Americans are below average!"  Guess
some of them are on the Street.

So prices fell at the open and bounced lower all day, closing off 15pts.
Thirteen points would have been significant.  That was enough to cause
my timing signal to flip a SELL signal--but for a 25pt profit this time.
Volume increased over yesterday, but was still -4% below average.

Yesterday I wrote, "Well, prices are still above the 'rising bottoms'
support line, so the market is still positive."  And that's the "What a
difference a day makes," part.  The support line was 1226 today, and it
was penetrated well before the 1219 close.  So I'd say it's history now.
Sure, volume was below average, but there were certainly many more
sellers today than buyers yesterday.  If I was holding some trading
positions, I'd be out of them ASAP and booking my profits.  The 50-Day
average is 1217, more or less this level, so there might be some bargain
hunters, but they're welcome to it.  The 50-Day average is sometimes a
Support or Resistance level, but it's not of major importance.  The
200-Day IS!  The 200-Day average is 1192.  Hope it holds!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     <___     __|_     __<_     _|__     ___<     08/10
 __>_     __     ___<     08/11
 _>__     __     _>__     ___<     08/12
 __|_     __     ___<     08/15
 <___     |___     _|__     _|__     _|__     ___<     08/16

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  08/16/05 S&P:    1219
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +25

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Thesaurus - dinosaur with a large vocabulary.
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