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Prices jumped nicely in the first few minutes of trading, swooned some
but stayed positive through the morning, but by lunch were back on the
march.  On the intraday chart I noted a period in mid-day when prices
jumped, and it was "confirmed" by a jump in volume.  Prices closed up
enough to be significant.  Volume continued the trend of the week, every
day since Tuesday slackening a bit, +25%, +23%, +21%, & +18%, but still
at +18% was more than enough volume to be called another enthusiastic
"Accumulation" day, confirming Tuesday's call.  If you carefully examine
the mini-chart for Volume below, you'll see how it demonstrates a change
in trend.

But I'm VERY suspicious of this.  I think the Street is over-reacting to
anything seeming to be good news.  It is well aware of the "January
Barometer", and it is to the Street's advantage to have a positive
appearance to the first 5 days' trading.  I'd like to see a good year as
much as anybody else, but I'm not going to offer to be "sucker punched"!

We're hearing a lot made of today's job creation numbers--but as
compared to what?  A raw number is meaningless.  How does today's number
compare to other periods when we had a robust economy?  And the
unemployment rate?  I haven't shown-up on that in YEARS!  That only
speaks to how many people are drawing unemployment checks, not to the
actual number of unemployed people.  If you've got a minimum wage job
now at Wal-Mart, after losing your higher paying job in manufacturing,
the numbers imply you're in just as good shape as ever.

I'm reminded of a story attributed to the '96 Clinton campaign when he
made a similar statement about the number of jobs his administration had
created.  That got a yell from the audience, "Yeah, and I've got three
of them!"

But the issue here isn't inherently political, this employment trend has
been going on for years.  I blame the CEO's and their short-sighted
effort to satisfy whatever Wall Street wants this quarter.  And I blame
the Boards of Directors.  We've GOT to decouple the CEO's compensation
from stock prices!  It is NOT to MY advantage to have companies do
things to increase stock prices, at the expense of the company's long
term viability, and continuing to employ Americans in high-paying jobs.
                                
 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     |___     _|__     <___     _|__     __|_     12/30
 ___>     |___     __|_     ___<     __|_     __|_     01/03
 __>_     >___     __|_     ____     ___|     01/04
 __>_     >___     __|_     ___|     __>_     ___|     01/05
 __>_     _>__     __|_     __>_     ___>     ___|     01/06

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  01/03/06 S&P:    1269
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... A fool and his money is my kind of customer!
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