"Michael Ragland"  wrote in message
>
> Obviously you are stating the HIV virus hasn't mastered its own
> transmission (any evidence for that?) and that the disease may become
> worse by "spreading" through coughs and sneezes (any evidence for
> that?)and making boils and warts (any evidence for that?).
>
HIV is doing OK. Not much chance of seeing it on the endangered species red
list for a long time.
>
> Interestingly, although you paint a possible picture of the virus getting
> worse in the long run you see it as possibly becoming benign. You
> state, "In this instance - HIV - we have a compelling reason for thinking
> that AIDS will eventually become much more benign - since there is a
> simian equivalent - SIV - where the host population has been exposed
> for a lot longer - and the disease has indeed turned into a relatively
> benign form."
>
HIV is already quite benign - it doesn't kill the host for many years after
infection. I don't think we can really predict how it will evolve - either
to become more virulent to improve its transmission coefficient or be more
benign to transmit for longer.
>
> The complex nature of the HIV virus seems to make the idea of "one"
> universal vaccine illusory. But assuming that could be done how much
> would it cost to deliver it to Africa's AIDS ridden areas and would the
> wealthier countries pay for it?
>
There seem to be two problems, firstly the high rate of evolution of the
virus, and secondly the fact that it attacks the cells that are designed to
control intruders.
However I don't think you can predict how much a vaccine, if it can be
developed, would cost. It might be cheaper than the glass bottles it is
distributed it, or it might be so expensive that only the richest can afford
it.
>
> As everybody knows the Catholic Church has some influence in Africa > and
the Pope has staunchly been against all forms of birth control save
> perhaps the rhythmn method.
>
The Pope is also staunchly against sexual promiscuity and drug abuse, the
two behaviours that lead to HIV infection.
> If, however, the industrialized Western countries (which do have
> education and access to birth control) and the Vatican changed their
> tune it is conceivable the AIDS epidemic in Africa would subside.
>
Birth control makes it more difficult for couples to form stable pair bonds
and thus leads to promiscuity, which leads to AIDS.

How do you persuade the girl who has gone steady with a boy for three years
(but had a two month relationship with another boy five years ago) that
she's got to use a condom?
>
> However, given how long it would take for HIV to possibly become
> generally  benign I think there may be enough time to form an adequate
> political response...but not in my lifetime:)
>
There seem to be a few HIV resistant African prostitutes who must have been
exposed to the virus, yet reamin immune. So HIV won't wipe us out, though it
might kill 95% of the population.
Anyone who waits for HIV to evolve to a less virulent form is an idiot -
evolutionary timescales are very long compared to a human life.
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