ACUS48 KWNS 210946
SWOD48
SPC AC 210945

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models indicate a relatively strong zonal pattern over much of the
CONUS for Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with a shortwave trough skirting the
Great Lakes area. Then, through the Thu/D8 period, there is a
possibility of a low-amplitude trough amplification within this
strong belt of flow, moving across the southern Plains and
Southeast.

Predictability for this later scenario is low at this time, as there
is little run-to-run consistency. However, the air mass over the
western Gulf of Mexico, spreading into the lower MS Valley, will
become progressively more moist and unstable each day, and severe
weather may become possible in those areas. The initial more robust
moisture return from southeast TX across LA and southern MS/AL may
be accompanied by substantial clouds and precipitation, but stronger
destabilization will be possible as the warm front potentially moves
north into the Wed/D7 to Thu/D8 time frame.

..Jewell.. 11/21/2024

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