Content-type: text/plain

"That's a wrap!"  Prices were down moderately all day.  Volume increased
a little bit, but was still -27% below average.

As you can see below, my momentum indicator slipped into negative
territory today, and that's a SELL signal!  This time it produced a
winner, up 41pts in two months.

Generally it's reasonably good about the first signal, but we should
ignore any subsequent dithering.  This time, should we believe it?

We suspect this action has been nothing more than Main Street's tax-loss
selling, while Wall Street has been on Holiday.  Falling prices on high
volume is a Bearish indicator.  It shows enthusiastic selling, investors
determinedly getting OUT!  But this isn't that.  This volume shows a
lack of interest.

Quit rationalizing!  You'll never have any profits if you never take
them off the table!

Why was there no "Santa Claus Rally"?  Because you got used to that
during a long term, "secular" Bull Market between 1982-2000.  Investors
had less tax-loss selling to do and were predisposed to "Buy on the
Dips".  It swamped the tax-loss selling.

What you can't see yet is my momentum indicator has been falling for
the past month.  Well, ya!  For the past month prices have been stuck in
a 20pt trading range from 1254 to 1273.  It doesn't matter that's the
highest it's been in years, prices don't have any momentum for going
higher.

So yeah, if it was me and I was an active investor, I'd pocket the
profit.  January's coming, and it's often tough.

Look for my website's "Tracking the Market" page next week and you'll be
able to see the charts I've been watching.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     |___     __|_     _     __|_     12/23
 _<__     |___     __|_     <___     _|__     __|_     12/27
 __<_     |___     __|_     <___     __|_     __|_     12/28
 _<__     |___     __|_     <___     __|_     __|_     12/29
 _<__     |___     _|__     <___     _|__     __|_     12/30

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  12/30/05 S&P:    1248
Winner or Loser:  winner                By:     +41

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Cats: God's way of telling you your furniture is too nice
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

---