ACUS11 KWNS 181529
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181529=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-181730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Areas affected...northeast TX and far southeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181529Z - 181730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado and localized damaging wind threat will
exist through early afternoon with mesovortices within a line of
low-topped convection moving east-northeast across northeast Texas.
A watch may be necessary if greater deepening into thunderstorms
occurs.

DISCUSSION...Several transient and generally weak mesovortices have
been noted around the Metroplex with a largely north/south-oriented
convective line moving east-northeastward. Low-level shear is quite
strong ahead of the line per area VWPs and will remain so into early
afternoon. Convective depth has been a limiting factor to more
persistent/stronger mesovortices, with a lack of CG lightning
production and echo tops to around 25k ft. It appears the northern
tip of 67-68 F surface dew points may be necessary for a consistent
severe threat. This should tend to ripple slowly southward into
early afternoon as the convective line occludes the rich low-level
moisture plume emanating north across east TX.

..Grams/Smith.. 11/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7bWNogDmz3Kcovoaz6GnlJSiIDdAbvnO6gz80zfdDsIdeRa2wRP6Pxxuld_rkIhnFIXKEaTxo=
6gcuCruaXgZP6bE3C4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32789687 33489682 33939649 34099583 33909504 33469499
            32919497 32479503 32069524 31459567 31179641 31449690
            32789687=20


=3D =3D =3D
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