ACUS02 KWNS 161728
SWODY2
SPC AC 161726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through
daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a
few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the southern
Plains tomorrow (Sunday) into tomorrow night as a second mid-level
trough impinges on the Interior West. By tomorrow night into early
Monday morning, surface low development is expected across western
TX as strong upper support and an 80 kt mid-level speed max
overspread the southern Plains. Low-level warm-air advection
accompanying the developing surface low will support modest
boundary-layer destabilization across central TX into southern OK,
where adequate lift and shear will support some potential for severe
thunderstorms.

...Southern Plains - Sunday Night into early Monday Morning...
By around 06Z Monday morning, a surface low should begin to
materialize just south of the TX Panhandle with the ejection of the
aforementioned mid-level trough. Despite poor low and mid-level
lapse rates, modest surface-850 mb theta-e advection will support a
corridor of 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE across central TX into extreme
southern OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Given strong forcing for
ascent and south-southwesterly 500 mb flow oriented roughly parallel
with an approaching cold front, a squall line is expected to develop
and advance northeast in tandem with the surface low. Modest veering
but rapid strengthening with height of the vertical wind profile
will support large, curved hodographs ahead of the squall line.
0-500 m SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH reaching 400 m2/s2
in spots. However, questions remain regarding how much SRH can be
effectively ingested into thunderstorm updrafts given scant buoyancy
profiles. Still, effective downward momentum transport of the strong
synoptic flow aloft may support severe gusts within the squall line.
Furthermore, if strong enough low-level WAA can appreciably
destabilize the nocturnal boundary-layer, then isolated QLCS
tornadoes may also occur. Any QLCS tornadoes that can develop will
most likely occur with any LEWPS or mesovortices within portions of
the squall line preceding the surface low track, where low-level
winds will be most backed and low-level shear will be strongest.

..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024

$$

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