Kevin Aylward wrote:
> John Edser wrote:
> 
>>>JM:-
>>
> 
>>JE:-
>>Popper's writings on evolutionary theory
>>were brief. I do not have any references
>>to hand as I write this post. Originally he
>>found Darwinian evolution to be a tautology
>>(a circular argument). However this
>>conclusion was based on Herbert Spencer's
>>misrepresentation of natural selection.
>>Ask anybody, even today, what they think Darwinism
>>is and they will reply with Herbert Spencer's
>>"survival of the fittest". The cause of
>>"survival of the fittest" was "only the
>>fittest survive". Thus A causes B, only because
>>B causes A!
>>
>>Here:   A-->B (thesis)
>>  B-->A (antithesis)
>>
>>are combined within the one causative view.
>>
>>Such a view is just an absolute contradiction
>>as a theory of cause and affect. In essence
>>a tautology is only a valid statement of equality
>>such as: Fitness = the total number of
> 
> 
> 
> Recognition of a tautology can be very useful. "Survival of the
fittest"
> is actually fully equivalent to :
> 
> "That which is observed mostly, is that which replicates the most".
> 
> And is therefore a tautology, but a very useful one in explaining
> observations. 

Well, not quite - the explanations are still tautologies!

If you look carefully at the maths of natural selection, you'll see that 
fitness is defined as an expectation.  One way of looking at this is 
that it is the average survival if you ran the universe many times. 
What we observe is only one of these replicate runs.

Therefore, if we can estimate/predict fitness from some other source 
that actual survival, then we can use that to predict whether the 
fittest will survive the most.  This can be done, for example in these 
papers:

HOVMOLLER, MS; MUNK, L; OSTERGARD, H
     OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CHANGES IN VIRULENCE GENE-FREQUENCIES AT 11 
LOCI IN A LOCAL BARLEY POWDERY MILDEW POPULATION
     PHYTOPATHOLOGY, 83 (3): 253-260 MAR 1993

OSTERGARD, H; HOVMOLLER, MS
     GAMETIC DISEQUILIBRIA BETWEEN VIRULENCE GENES IN BARLEY POWDERY 
MILDEW POPULATIONS IN RELATION TO SELECTION AND RECOMBINATION .1. MODELS
     PLANT PATHOL, 40 (2): 166-177 JUN 1991

HOVMOLLER, MS; OSTERGARD, H
     GAMETIC DISEQUILIBRIA BETWEEN VIRULENCE GENES IN BARLEY POWDERY 
MILDEW POPULATIONS IN RELATION TO SELECTION AND RECOMBINATION .2. DANISH 
OBSERVATIONS
     PLANT PATHOL, 40 (2): 178-189 JUN 1991

(sorry about the lack of Danish characters!)


Bob

-- 
Bob O'Hara

Rolf Nevanlinna Institute
P.O. Box 4 (Yliopistonkatu 5)
FIN-00014 University of Helsinki
Finland
Telephone: +358-9-191 23743
Mobile: +358 50 599 0540
Fax:  +358-9-191 22 779
WWW:  http://www.RNI.Helsinki.FI/~boh/
---
þ RIMEGate(tm)/RGXPost V1.14 at BBSWORLD * Info{at}bbsworld.com

---
 * RIMEGate(tm)V10.2áÿ* RelayNet(tm) NNTP Gateway * MoonDog BBS
 * RgateImp.MoonDog.BBS at 1/10/04 12:40:04 AM