FOUS30 KWBC 160821
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 - 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A southern stream cutoff low is expected to eject into the Plains
and be accompanied with very impressive IVT, PWs and forcing as it
moves across Texas and Oklahoma by Sunday evening into the=20
overnight hours. This should be enough to overcome the limited=20
forecast instability and result in deep convection and heavy=20
rainfall rates across portions of the Southern Rockies and the=20
adjacent Southern/Central Plains. Guidance continues to suggest
2-4" of rain, but would expect isolated swaths as high as 4-6"=20
within this setup. The overall progressive nature of the system and
limited instability will cap the upper bound of rainfall=20
totals...but this system is dynamic enough with plentiful moisture=20
to suggest at least localized flash flooding is likely. A Marginal
Risk area remains in effect for central/eastern New Mexico,
northern Texas, most of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. The inherited
Slight Risk area saw a minor expansion to reflect the latest trends
and WPC QPF and spans from northern Texas/panhandle to western
Oklahoma.

...Coastal Oregon and northwest California...

A fairly progressive, weak/moderate atmospheric river will be
ongoing across the region. Total rain of 2-4" (through 12z Mon)=20
and hourly rainfall rates possibly approaching 0.5" within a narrow
southward shifting axis suggest that some minor flooding issues=20
could arise along coastal areas/mountains. A Marginal Risk area
remains in effect along the coastline.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024 - 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024

...THERE ARE MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST AND THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

...Central U.S. ...

The precipitation shield will shift eastward as the cold front=20
advances further into the Plains. Moderate to locally heavy
rainfall is expected from northern Texas to southern Minnesota with
areal average of 1 to 3 inches. The higher amounts will likely=20
concentrate over eastern Kansas, eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
A Marginal Risk area was maintained with minor adjustments for this
issuance.=20

...Gulf Coast...

A plume of enhanced tropical moisture will likely advect northward
through the Gulf of Mexico well in advance of tropical cyclone=20
Sara; which will increase the potential for heavy rain and
localized flooding concerns along portions of the Gulf Coast. A
Marginal Risk area is in effect from southeast Texas to southern
Mississippi.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ktYQzgBTrwpOexHPtJ1HfNupWWTmjrNfGrDnoQ1SzV3=
olWiM2_Pu8Nk6iBYi0TrORfPYbAevL4T6vc0vA3gctr8ffg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ktYQzgBTrwpOexHPtJ1HfNupWWTmjrNfGrDnoQ1SzV3=
olWiM2_Pu8Nk6iBYi0TrORfPYbAevL4T6vc0vA3gAzu1cqU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ktYQzgBTrwpOexHPtJ1HfNupWWTmjrNfGrDnoQ1SzV3=
olWiM2_Pu8Nk6iBYi0TrORfPYbAevL4T6vc0vA3gPQD24cU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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