FOUS30 KWBC 160012
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
712 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Nov 16 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 - 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

20z Update: Only made minor changes to the inherited Marginal and
Slight risk area over TX into OK as the forecast looks on track.
Very impressive IVT, PWs and forcing will move across TX/OK by
Sunday evening into the overnight hours. This should be enough to
overcome the limited forecast instability and result in deep
convection and heavy rainfall rates. The latest model consensus is
for 2-4" of rain, but would expect isolated swaths as high as 4-6"
within this setup. The overall progressive nature of the system and
limited instability will cap the upper bound of rainfall
totals...but this system is dynamic enough with plentiful moisture
to suggest at least localized flash flooding is likely.

The Marginal risk over western OR also remains. This risk is pretty
borderline, as the AR is only weak to moderate and is fairly
progressive. However event total rain of 2-4" (through 12z Mon)
and hourly rainfall rates possibly approaching 0.5" within a
narrow southward shifting axis suggest that some minor flooding
issues could arise along coastal areas/mountains.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

An upper trough traversing through the West this weekend is
expected to split which will send energy in the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest along with a strong southern stream cutoff low
into the Four Corner that will exit into the Central/Southern
Plains for the start of the week. A surface low pressure system
will forecast to spin up in the lee of the Rockies and deepen as it
tracks from the Plains through the Midwest. Scattered to widespread
moderate to heavy rainfall will be supported by this setup across
portions of the Southern Rockies and the adjacent Southern/Central
Plains.

Guidance is suggesting 1 to 2 inches of rain for central and
eastern portions of New Mexico, particularly over some of the same
areas that had several inches of snow last week. With rain on top
of snow expected some locations will have an increased risk for
flooding concerns. The Marginal Risk area that was already in
effect was expanded westward to now cover central and eastern
portions of New Mexico. The highest concentration of rainfall will
likely focus across parts of northern Texas/panhandle into western
Oklahoma. Consensus suggests areal average of 3 to 4.5 inches with
locally higher amounts possible. Therefore, a Slight Risk was
introduced with this issuance.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ZowWT_yxhDum2kYxtWu3mXf5hDfVeFWFGRaHluzNO5W=
q1ZS-5rGGpX2pTq-pDnlogEOE9xyGBxBTV1Dzg9V7U-1t2Q$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ZowWT_yxhDum2kYxtWu3mXf5hDfVeFWFGRaHluzNO5W=
q1ZS-5rGGpX2pTq-pDnlogEOE9xyGBxBTV1Dzg9VfmcBhnU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ZowWT_yxhDum2kYxtWu3mXf5hDfVeFWFGRaHluzNO5W=
q1ZS-5rGGpX2pTq-pDnlogEOE9xyGBxBTV1Dzg9VnPlpmP8$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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