FOUS30 KWBC 141745
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1245 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Nov 14 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...16Z update...

Similar thinking to the previous outlook applies, where in a
worst-case scenario, localized flash flooding could develop in the
vicinity of the Outer Banks/eastern NC/southeastern VA. However,
the 12Z hires guidance has trended down from last night with any
appreciable instability remaining limited to the barrier islands.

There is good consensus for 3+ inches from the 12Z HREF to fall
through 12Z in/around Cape Hatteras, but potential for high
rainfall rates remains below the FFG thresholds. See additional
forecast details below...

Otto

...Previous discussion follows...


Maturing surface cyclone off the VA/NC coast will amplify
rainfall prospects over the VA Tidewater into Eastern NC late this
afternoon and evening with a developing axis of deformation driving
elevated convective concerns in the aforementioned areas. Totals
between 1.5-3" are forecast within these zones with some minor
flooding possible over urban zones and the immediate coast,
coinciding with coastal flooding likely occurring. Rainfall rates
will fall short of the necessary criteria to meet FFG exceedance,
however a non-zero threat will exist for flash flood concerns
across Northern NC into Southern and Southeast VA in urban zones
that are more prone to flooding prospects. This is still below the
5% threshold necessary for flash flooding leading to a continued
nil ERO, but non-zero threat.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6GUvNbXW1LFZCyO_NvfhsFhpzC3qe-5g9z2Gf85Xx4k3=
5iQy8kSn59OEs2roFofRzKIeO28zgzU7uH85qUwzg5kL9Vs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6GUvNbXW1LFZCyO_NvfhsFhpzC3qe-5g9z2Gf85Xx4k3=
5iQy8kSn59OEs2roFofRzKIeO28zgzU7uH85qUwzUvK9IJI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6GUvNbXW1LFZCyO_NvfhsFhpzC3qe-5g9z2Gf85Xx4k3=
5iQy8kSn59OEs2roFofRzKIeO28zgzU7uH85qUwzQodsMYw$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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