ACUS01 KWNS 141627
SWODY1
SPC AC 141625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds
and perhaps a tornado could occur across parts of coastal North
Carolina this evening/tonight.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper
trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress
east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface
cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal
Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore
warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in
proximity to the Gulf Stream.

Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are
experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent
NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis
and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more
offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly
prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some
near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of
supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind
damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having
the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/14/2024

$$

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