ACUS03 KWNS 140826
SWODY3
SPC AC 140825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave is forecast to emerge out of the deep
trough across the West and move across parts of the northern Plains
and upper Midwest on Saturday. A trailing shortwave trough is
expected to dig southeastward across the Southwest and northern
Mexico, and potentially evolve into a mid/upper-level low by the end
of the period. A surface low is expected to move northeastward
across the northern Plains, as a surface ridge shifts eastward
across much of the eastern CONUS.

Early-stage moisture return is expected to commence across the
southern Plains on Saturday, as low-level flow veers to
southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest
low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains low. This
early moisture return is expected to be insufficient for any
appreciable surface-based destabilization. A plume of elevated
moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the
Great Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A general
thunderstorm area has been included for this isolated thunder
potential, though uncertainty remains rather high.

..Dean.. 11/14/2024

$$

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