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It was all downhill again today.  Prices dropped another -10pts, where
I'd call -12pts significant.  Volume increased to +5% above average, not
great by recent standards but still showing sellers ruled.

You know this is what I've been expecting.  But our biggest danger is
when the market begins acting as we expect, we tend to see everything as
reinforcement of our expectations.  Then we're going to miss the turns.
So maybe once in a while you'll read an "I told you so", but not often.
As soon as it begins to "go my way", I start looking for the
"betrayal".

If you want to keep some technical support numbers in mind, first hope
for 1245, last fall's highs.  That's a'ways back.  More relevant might
be down around 1225, the 200-day moving average.  Failing that, hope for
1205 or so, a "rising bottoms" line stretching back to 2004.  Those are
current numbers, 10, 30, & 50pts below where we are.  They'll change by
the time we get there.  The thing is, the Street pushed prices far
beyond where there was any technical support, because they could.  And
don't get faked out by a few upward corrections along the way.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __     __|_     ___|     02/01
 __     _<__     ___|     02/02
 __     _<__     ___|     02/03
 ____     _|__     _>__     _<__     ___|     02/06
 ___     _|__     __>_     _<__     ___|     02/07

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  02/03/06 S&P:    1264
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -10

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... I'm not a stranger...only a friend you haven't met.
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