Content-type: text/plain

Prices improved modestly early, but in spite of some oscillation it was
all downhill from there.  Prices closed modestly lower, while volume
continued to increase, to +7% above average.

I received an email this morning which among other things noted 11
companies which had been paying dividends have skipped paying.  That's
unusual.  Dividends, for companies who return profits to stockholders
that way, are typically seen as an indication of the business and
financial health of the company.  One of the last things the company
wants to do is skip a dividend.  The analyst used this to confirm other
indications that the market has some troubles to paint a cautious if not
negative picture of the market's future.

Well, you no doubt have noticed I haven't been exactly "Sunny Jim" for
the past year or more.  But I think it's very dangerous to pay too much
attention to information which seems to confirm our own opinion.  It
tends to result in "hardening of the attitudes".  For example, I think
the worst thing we can do as citizens is listen to "talk radio" from our
own end of the spectrum.  Why do we need to hear more about something we
already believe?  What the entire spectrum has to say is far more likely
to be informative, or at least bring reasonable questions to the fore.

As investors we can't let that happen to us.  On Wall Street the famed
"fat lady" NEVER sings.  It's never "over".

But beyond that, even when we're right we may be wrong.  We may not have
agreed on the reasons and yet come to similar conclusions.  So when
the underlying causes change, were we looking at the wrong reasons which
are still the same, so stay stuck as the market moves away from us?

So what we need to do as investors is seek out NEW data, things we
HAVEN'T heard about before.  We need to stay objective, not partisan, as
we analyze this new information to see how it informs us about current
market and economic conditions.

I pay some attention to the news I read and hear about the market, but
when I collect my daily numbers and plug them into my spreadsheet and
begin to write my commentary, what I write comes primarily from the
numbers, today and the recent trends.  I rarely have an idea beforehand
what I'm going to write, because until then I don't know how all the
numbers play together.  Sometimes I even amaze myself.  But the point
is, taking my analysis from the numbers keeps me in step with the market
that produces those numbers, not the one of imagination.  All I have to
remember is to avoid trying to predict the future.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __     _|__     ___>     _<__     __<_     10/05
 __     _|__     ___>     <___     __<_     10/06
 ___     _|__     __>_     _<__     __<_     10/07
 __     _|__     __>_     <___     __<_     10/10
 _|__     __>_     __     |___     __<_     10/11

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  10/04/05 S&P:    1214
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -13

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Positive: mistaken at the top of your voice
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

---