ACUS48 KWNS 120935
SWOD48
SPC AC 120933

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance still generally suggests some organized severe potential
may evolve across the south-central Plains and vicinity early next
week, though uncertainty remains high regarding the timing and
intensity of embedded shortwave troughs and the details regarding
low-level moisture return and destabilization.

On D5/Saturday, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
emerge from the deep, positively tilted trough over the West and
move across the northern Plains, accompanied by a deepening surface
low. While severe potential appears minimal on Saturday, the
ejecting wave is forecast to initiate low-level moisture return into
the southern Plains, which will continue into D6/Sunday and
D7/Monday.

For D6/Sunday into D7/Monday, the most important feature related to
severe potential will be a shortwave trough that may briefly evolve
into a closed mid/upper-level low somewhere over the Southwest,
before ejecting east-northeastward. Recent runs of the deterministic
ECMWF/GFS are in relatively good agreement in depicting a negatively
tilted shortwave trough ejecting into the south-central Plains on
D7/Monday. However, spread among GEFS ensemble members remains
rather high regarding the timing and evolution of shortwaves into
early next week, while the ECMWF is less aggressive with low-level
moisture return, showing only very minimal destabilization in
advance of the ejecting shortwave trough on D7/Monday.

Given the uncertainties regarding both shortwave timing and
magnitude of moisture return/destabilization, confidence is too low
to delineate a 15 percent area over some portion of the
south-central Plains for D7/Monday, the day which seems to have the
greatest relative potential at this time. It remains possible that
some severe threat could emerge as soon as D6/Sunday, and/or
potentially persist into D8/Tuesday.

..Dean.. 11/12/2024

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