ACUS02 KWNS 111725
SWODY2
SPC AC 111724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few elevated storms -- possibly capable of producing hail -- may
develop across parts of the southern High Plains and into western
Oklahoma Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
As an upper-level trough shifts across the northeastern U.S. and
eventually vacates the CONUS, a second/high-amplitude trough
crossing the western states is forecast to cross the High Plains and
emerge into the Plains States during the second half of the period
tomorrow (Tuesday).

At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will cover the
eastern half of the U.S. in the wake of a prior cold-frontal
passage, while remnants of Rafael linger over the western Gulf.
Overnight, a cold front -- associated with the western upper trough
-- is forecast to shift out of the Rockies and into the Plains.

...Texas Panhandle/South Plains region into western Oklahoma...
Boundary-layer moisture return is forecast to be meager ahead of the
advancing cold front, as northeasterly winds will persist across the
western Gulf of Mexico west of the remnants of Rafael.  As such,
surface-based, diurnal convective development appears unlikely.
With that said, elevated theta-e advection should be sufficient to
allow thunderstorm development to occur across portions of the
southern High Plains region and into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma
overnight.  Ample cloud-layer shear combined with 500 to 1000 J/kg
elevated CAPE expected to evolve may allow a few storms to develop
some mid-level rotation.  As such, hail potential still appears
sufficient to warrant maintenance of Level 1/MRGL risk across this
area.

..Goss.. 11/11/2024

$$

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