ACUS03 KWNS 101916
SWODY3
SPC AC 101916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail will be possible in parts of the southern High
Plains Tuesday evening.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid-level trough will move into Rockies on Tuesday, as a broad
belt of low-level flow strengthens across the Great Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the
southern and central High Plains on Tuesday. Moisture advection
ahead of the front will result in a north-to-south corridor of
maximized low-level moisture across west Texas, where surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s F and lower 60S F. MUCAPE is
expected to increase into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range along the
moist axis by late afternoon, as mid-level lapse rates steepen due
to the approach of the trough. Low-level convergence ahead of the
front is forecast to become maximized early Tuesday evening, which
should result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
across the southern High Plains. NAM forecast soundings in the
eastern Texas Panhandle at 03Z on Tuesday have effective shear near
40 knots, with 3-6 km lapse rates near 7 C/km. This may support
isolated supercell development, with a potential for severe hail.
The storms are expected to be elevated and marginal in nature, due
to factors such as the late arrival of the trough, and relatively
weak instability.

..Broyles.. 11/10/2024

$$

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