AWUS01 KWNH 100755
FFGMPD
LAZ000-101200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1148
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Areas affected...Central Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100800Z - 101200Z

SUMMARY...Stationary isentropic boundary starting to dislodge from
anchored position.  Lingering scattered showers may intersect
compromised soils/flooded areas to maintain localized flooding
conditions over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR loop shows stationary isentropic
ascent boundary has recently encountered an increase in low level
winds from 15-20kts to 20-25kts.  This increase has allowed for
the stable balance over the last 4-6hrs resulting in 6-12" of
rainfall over N Allen/S Rapides Parishes to finally support an
additional 3-5kts of propagation to the southeast.  In addition,
CIRA LPW and RAP TPW analysis suggest air within the increased ESE
and SE flow is also starting to dry realitive to the peak core of
moisture which is currently being ingested allowing for at least
one more good surge of enhanced rainfall rates across Evangeline
parish.  Rates of 2-2.5" are likely to be short-lived maybe for
1-1.5 more hours before further evaporating.=20=20

Recent HRRR solution appears to be catching on the trend noted in
RADAR/GOES-E SWIR with increased aggitated Cu along the stationary
front across E TX into NW LA as well as tropical offshore cells
along the outer edges/convergence bands of Rafael. ARW/ARW2
solutions help with this devoltuion as well though timing remains
a bit slow (typical of bias).  Still, scattered showers in the
vicinity of the saturated/flooded soils and with ample moisture,
additional .5-1" totals may help maintain/prolong the flooding
across central LA; as such, flash flooding remains possible for
the next 3-4 hours, with reducing probability in time.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5n9DS4WF82ijCc_htERuSdOwShCYM6FBvP0XdWF8DBPlNH1hcbvZ8Yup3FsvOqK22lB-=
VkmmwyX8_hcqfu1VNvKp_QI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31809201 31549169 31329167 30979182 30649193=20
            30309213 30309307 30539342 30819334 31239300=20
            31709237=20

=3D =3D =3D
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