ACUS02 KWNS 091721
SWODY2
SPC AC 091720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast
to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and
upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a
trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into
southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms
are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and
ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited
vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.
Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of
the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast.

...Mississippi Valley...
In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and
broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS
Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound
the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with
dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to
be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the
upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft
will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected
coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and
mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This
should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and
near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor
lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will
likely preclude severe potential.

..Lyons.. 11/09/2024

$$

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