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The market reversed course today and took back what it lost yesterday.
Volume gained a percent to +6% above average.

Does that cancel-out yesterday's Bearish action?  Not really.  What it
seems to tell us is the Street is mighty jumpy and watching the news of
the day.

Prices are still 3pts below the 50-day Moving Average--the short-term
indicator.  Some might be taking that as a bargain hunting opportunity.
That's a problem--generally they're traders and have a commitment to
their positions that's about an inch deep.  I wouldn't, even as a trade.
What I see is a formation of lower highs (1294 to 1285) and lower lows
(1261 to 1255).  It's not enough yet to call it a trend (it would only
be a few weeks long even so), but it would make me cautious.  If this is
a trading range forming, it might recover to 1280 or so before reversing
again, but 10-15pts isn't much profit for the risk.

I often write about strategic planning and rules.  This is an example of
where we need tactical rules.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __     _<__     ___|     02/02
 __     _<__     ___|     02/03
 ____     _|__     _>__     _<__     ___|     02/06
 ___     _|__     __>_     _<__     ___|     02/07
 ____     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___|     02/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  02/03/06 S&P:    1264
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -10

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... A good pun is its own reword.
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