AWUS01 KWNH 090354
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-090900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1142
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1054 PM EST Fri Nov 08 2024

Areas affected...Eastern TX...Adj. Northwest/Western LA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090400Z - 090900Z

SUMMARY...Potential for intense but scattered clusters of cells
with efficient rainfall production possibily resulting in
localized flash flooding.=20

DISCUSSION...03z surface analysis depicts a triple-point low near
FF4 and TYR at eastern-most bulge in the progressive cold front
across N Texas through to the Central Texas Coastal Plain.   An
ill-defined stationary front extends generally due east and
demarcates sfc Tds in the high upper 60s/low 70s from lower values
northward in NE TX.   The upper-low pressing eastward and
associated height-falls are diminishing with its filling and so
low level response in wind flow has seen a marked decrease to
20-25kts across the warm sector becoming more parallel to the cold
front. Generally reducing flux and overall moisture convergence to
maintain a broader area of ascent.  However, this is resulting
into increased orthogonal intersection with the  the stationary
front providing isentropic ascent/convergence where moisture
remains most pooled.  Total PWat values remain AoA 2", and while
there is a weak connection to low level moisture from outer
periphery of Rafael's moisture pool, the winds are generally below
15kts and so not really connecting to increase, but more weakly
maintain the moisture across the warm sector.

Unstable air in the warm sector still is more than sufficient to
promote stronger updrafts, but given the weakening flow cells may
become a bit more clustered/isolated.  MLCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg,
2" PWs and 20-25kts should still support downdrafts capable of
1.75-2"/hr.   The limiting factor is likely to be residency,
probability of totals over 2.5-3" are likely to be limited to the
strongest cores.  Though there is some potential that expanding
eastward development along the isentropic boundary into LA may
allow for some repeating convection with slow eastward cell
motions along the slowing front.  As such, a widely scattered
incident or two of 3-4" is not out of the realm of possibility and
have the potential to result in localized flash flooding concerns
with best chances along/downstream of the triple point and
stationary front.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7-jK2R8d8jFPIAVX4plhszCimB7X3SQBM7bAJKjsHGzftCGy6YPdq9AArZUqiUBjXN4A=
XOBTOHsi6DD3THFAgchYqHY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33329498 33259398 32849342 32319323 31709335=20
            31069371 30549439 30479540 30959577 31799570=20
            33049567=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux