ACUS03 KWNS 080754
SWODY3
SPC AC 080753

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A dampening shortwave trough will progress from the Upper Midwest
across the Great Lakes. The trailing occluded/cold/quasi-stationary
front arcing southwest, from the attendant surface low moving into
southeast Canada, will serve as a focus for weak thunder activity.
Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit coverage, from the Lower OH
Valley southwestward across the Lower MS to Sabine Valleys.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible over far south FL by late
afternoon into Sunday night as low-level moisture increases from the
southeast. 10 percent thunder probabilities may reach coastal WA/OR
by 12Z Monday as a northeast Pacific shortwave trough approaches.

...Coastal LA...
00Z ECMWF ensemble depicts increasing spread in the evolution of TC
Rafael by early Sunday as the cyclone weakens. A small percentage
support more of a northerly movement, similar to deterministic
NCEP/CMC guidance. But the vast majority of the ECMWF ensemble
members, along with the UKMET, support the favored NHC forecast. For
now, TC-tornado potential appears likely to remain negligible.

..Grams.. 11/08/2024

$$

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