ACUS03 KWNS 071917
SWODY3
SPC AC 071916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level cyclone and attendant weak surface low are
forecast to move northeastward from western KS toward the
east-central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. A cold
front will extend south-southwestward from the low, with the
southern portion of this front potentially becoming nearly
stationary from parts of AR/MO to the upper TX Coast. Seasonably
rich low-level moisture will be in place along/south of a warm front
that is forecast to move northward across parts of AR/MO and the
Mid-South. NHC is currently forecasting Tropical Cyclone Rafael to
move westward across the west-central Gulf of Mexico and remain well
offshore of the TX/LA coasts on Saturday.

Guidance still suggests that stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be
displaced north of the richer low-level moisture, while relatively
warm temperatures aloft and weak midlevel lapse rates will limit
prefrontal buoyancy. Thunderstorms will be possible across a broad
region from LA and east TX into the mid MS and lower OH Valleys, but
organized severe storms are currently not expected.

..Dean.. 11/07/2024

$$

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