AWUS01 KWNH 061931
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-070130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1132
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

Areas affected...Central and Eastern GA...SC Midlands and
Lowcountry

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061930Z - 070130Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms is
expected going through the evening hours. Very heavy rainfall
rates and localized areas of cell-training will result in a
gradually increasing flash flood threat, and especially for the
more urbanized locations.

DISCUSSION...Deep layer tropical moisture transport extending well
north of Hurricane Rafael is seen in CIRA-ALPW imagery advancing
northwestward into the Southeast U.S. Already the PWs across much
of southern GA have increased to 2.25+ inches, and some additional
increase in the PWs will be expected this evening as deep layer
southeast flow persists over the region.

Meanwhile, this will couple with increasing boundary layer
instability in vicinity of a surface trough and developing
right-entrance region upper-level jet dynamics for broken areas of
very heavy shower and thunderstorm activity. MLCAPE values are
already locally on the order of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, and satellite
imagery is showing an increasingly divergent flow pattern aloft
associated with favorable placement of the upper-level jet near
the Southeast U.S.

Radar and satellite imagery are showing rather rapidly expanding
areas of convection with cooling cloud tops across central and
eastern GA, and some additional increase in coverage is expected
going through the evening hours as deep layer forcing/ascent
increases further which will likely include portions of the SC
Midlands and Lowcountry.

Some of the convection is expected to become locally very
concentrated heading into the evening hours, with some potential
for alignment of the activity in a cell-training manner. The 12Z
HREF guidance and recent runs of the HRRR have been supporting
this and suggest some impressive rainfall totals this evening,
with additional heavy rainfall totals extending well into the
overnight period.

Given the deeply tropical environment, the rainfall rates will be
extremely efficient with 2 to 3+ inch/hour rates eventually
becoming likely. The cell-training concerns associated with this
will favor some storm totals by mid-evening to reach as high as 3
to 6 inches.

Initially with the very dry antecedent conditions, the flash flood
threat will tend to be a bit conditional, and will tend to be more
of a concern for the more sensitive urbanized areas. However, the
flash flood threat is expected to increase further overnight as
additional heavy rains develop and persist over the same area.
Additional MPDs will be issued accordingly.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5rF2haKG-qNTL-6Kg23eop2qrA7ZRId4zdFWFIBe9K1ugPsaom58G_0KTODq7h_81ams=
x5YvuK9vHDq8YnNvPgPAQ6w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33918253 33868101 33028086 31778180 31408339=20
            31838466 32328510 32948489 33588379=20

=3D =3D =3D
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