AWUS01 KWNH 061402
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-061800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1131
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
901 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

Areas affected...Central and Northeast LA...Southwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061400Z - 061800Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue through the morning hours. Some localized
areas of flash flooding will be possible, and especially given
very high rainfall rates and some cell-training concerns.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with dual-pol radar shows slow-moving areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms focusing along and just ahead of a quasi-stationary
front situated from southwest LA northeastward through
west-central MS. The convection has been showing persistence and
localized expansion in coverage over the last couple of hours, and
is being influenced by proximity of a weak area of surface low
pressure along the front.

This is yielding an axis of relatively strong low-level moisture
convergence which is also embedded within a somewhat unstable
boundary layer characterized by MLCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg.
The upper-level flow over the northwest Gulf Coast region is also
seen becoming increasingly divergent and this is also facilitating
deeper layer ascent with a low-level convergent response ahead of
the aforementioned wave of low pressure.

Recent MRMS data has been showing some of the active areas of
convection over central LA producing rainfall rates of as much as
2 to 3 inches/hour and this is being aided by PWs of 1.75 to 2
inches which are about 2 standard deviations above normal for this
time of the year.

Additional rainfall amounts of up to 3 to 5 inches will be
possible by late this morning given the slow cell-motions and
occasional cell-training concerns. This is supported by the 12Z
HRRR guidance, and this may result in some localized areas of
flash flooding. The main threat will tend to be over central to
northeast LA, but some of this could potentially spread into
portions of southwest MS by later this morning.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7urNP6j1PqnxfxCgA5LmFnnJ2ZgtdLDh7bxmZtw7cVdlJA4xD0Xz2Puk9yUH3YzwW5o6=
ClXO94nn4iWBtE11iYuxT_w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32769106 32379083 30989151 30219222 30239287=20
            30889267 32119195=20

=3D =3D =3D
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