ACUS02 KWNS 051729
SWODY2
SPC AC 051728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of
Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening
Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida.

...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL...
Tropical Cyclone Rafael is forecast to move northwestward across
western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
night per the latest National Hurricane Center forecast.  Low-level
flow fields are forecast to strengthen across the Florida Straits
and Keys, with hodographs enlarging through early evening.  This
increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle,
with peak low-level SRH anticipated during the late afternoon.  Mid
to upper 70s surface dewpoints will contribute to buoyancy
sufficient for some of the stronger updrafts to intermittently
rotate with a couple of tornadoes possible.  The tornado threat will
probably lessen with time Wednesday night as low-level SRH weakens,
and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf.

..Smith.. 11/05/2024

$$

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