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The market was like South Florida all day today--underwater--although
there was a little jump after oil trading closed down--for a change.
Volume fell a little more, down to -16% below average.

Today's close at 1205 is just 10pts above the 200-day average at 1195.
I'd watch closely to see how the Street reacts to that.  That's not to
say it's necessarily catastrophic.  It happened last year at this time,
in fact most of the time between July and October.  Still, once it was
below, it was below most of the time for about 4 months--that's worth
noting.  This spring it briefly penetrated the 200-day three times.  I'd
interpret that as though the Street was asking itself just how negative
it felt about the market, and the answer was: "Not very."  So, it's not
necessarily something that should be alarming, but it certainly should
modify your investing tactics.

If prices fall below the 200-day, it's much more likely they'll continue
to go downward significantly than if they were well above the average.
This isn't Pollyanna time!  It's time for ignoring the 7% Solution.  If
prices for your positions sink to merely just what you paid for them,
Sell!  Don't wait for them to sink to 7% below your purchase price.
Remember Warren Buffet's Rule #1: Don't lose money.  Losses hurt you
much more than profits help you!  A 50% loss requires a 100% profit to
break even.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     _>__     _|__     ___     ___<     08/22
 _|__     _>__     _|__     ___     ___<     08/23
 _|__     _>__     _|__     ____     ___<     08/24
 ____     _|__     _<__     _|__     ___<     08/25
 ___     _|__     _<__     _|__     ___<     08/26

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  08/16/05 S&P:    1219
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +25

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... "Honey, where's part 5 of my 'Dada Trilogy'?"
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